According to a recent poll using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique, Labour is poised for its largest election victory in history, surpassing Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. The analysis, conducted by YouGov for Sky News, suggests that the party is on course to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140. This would result in a majority of 194, the largest margin for any party since 1924.
The poll, which was based on data from over 58,000 people, indicates that Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives since March, despite a recent policy blitz by the ruling party. As a result, voters are expected to turn out in droves to support Keir Starmer’s party, potentially leading to the Tories’ lowest number of MPs since 2001.
Among those projected to lose their seats are prominent figures such as Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, and former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg. This would mark a significant blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s prospects for re-election.
In a worrying sign for the ruling party, the poll also suggests that Labour is gaining ground across the country, with the party projected to win more seats than at any election since 1945. This would be a historic victory for Labour, potentially cementing its status as the dominant force in British politics.
Sir Keir Starmer (Via Sir Keir Starmer/Twitter)
For the Liberal Democrats, the forecast is slightly more encouraging, with the party projected to win 48 seats. The SNP would win 17 seats, while the Green Party would gain another MP.
Another poll, published earlier this month by More in Common and the News Agents podcast, had suggested that Labour was on course for its biggest majority in 23 years. This analysis was based on voting intention data collected between April 9 and May 29 from 15,089 adults in Great Britain.
The YouGov poll, however, takes the analysis one step further, using the MRP technique to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain. By identifying the views of different types of voters and then the type of voters in each seat, the MRP model provides a more detailed and nuanced picture of the election terrain.
As the campaign season heats up, it remains to be seen how these figures will play out on election day. One thing is clear, however: Labour is on course for a historic victory that would leave a lasting impact on British politics.
