President Joe Biden’s ceasefire proposal has placed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, where either path will significantly shape his legacy. The proposal offers the possibility of ending Israel’s war against Hamas, releasing scores of hostages, quieting the northern border with Lebanon, and potentially normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia. However, it would also likely lead to the dismantling of Netanyahu’s governing coalition, putting him in a precarious position.
Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal but made contradictory statements, saying Israel remains committed to dismantling Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, and that any talk of a permanent ceasefire is a “nonstarter.” He emphasized the destruction of Hamas, which has raised questions about what this entails and whether it’s even possible. Biden stated that Israel has degraded Hamas to the point where it can no longer carry out attacks, and continuing the war risks getting bogged down in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s critics fear he will reject any ceasefire to appease his ultranationalist partners, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to continue the war, fully reoccupy Gaza, and rebuild Jewish settlements. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have already threatened to leave the government if the proposal is implemented. Netanyahu’s political opponents have offered a safety net if he reaches a deal to release hostages, but they are unlikely to help him stay in office long-term.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Via Benjamin Netanyahu/Twitter)
As the most nationalist and religious government in Israel’s history, Netanyahu’s current government has a fragile majority and will require the support of smaller parties to govern. If he rejects the proposal, it could deepen Israel’s international isolation and worsen ties with the Biden administration. On the other hand, accepting the proposal could allow Hamas to claim victory and reconstitute itself.
Netanyahu’s endgame is to survive, as reflected by his attention to the demands of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. His legacy is intricately tied to his ability to navigate this crisis, and his choices will have far-reaching consequences for Israel’s relations with the international community and its internal politics. The current conflict has raised questions about the feasibility of the destruction of Hamas and the potential outcome of a ceasefire, which will continue to play out as Netanyahu weighs his options.
