Kamala Harris has managed to capture the momentum that typically follows a political convention, pulling ahead of Donald Trump in several key polls. As the Democratic convention approaches, polling shows Harris not only gaining ground but leading Trump nationally and in critical battleground states, reversing the trend that had placed President Biden in a difficult position before he withdrew from the race four weeks earlier.
Harris’ rise represents a dramatic shift in the race, with national polls showing her leading Trump by a few percentage points.
Harris has also gained small but significant leads in swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, putting her in a favorable position to win the Electoral College. However, Trump remains close, and flipping one of these battleground states could give him a victory. His current strategy focuses on maintaining his leads in other states while trying to regain ground in the critical “blue wall” states.
The timing of Harris’ rise is crucial, having announced her candidacy soon after the Republican convention and an assassination attempt on Trump.
Donald Trump
Normally, post-convention bumps favor the opposition party, but Harris appears to have benefitted from the aftermath of the Republican event, defying traditional campaign dynamics. There is a possibility that Harris could maintain or even extend her lead by Labor Day, giving her a strong position heading into the election.
Despite leading in several polls, Harris trails Trump on key issues like the economy, where voters trust him more. However, Trump’s personal likability remains a significant barrier. Polls show that while voters prefer Trump’s economic policies, they view Harris more favorably overall, with her leading Trump on attributes like honesty, mental sharpness, and trustworthiness.
In the Sun Belt, a region that had seemed out of reach for Democrats during Biden’s campaign, Harris is performing well among younger and more diverse voters. Her support among Black and Hispanic voters, crucial demographics in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, has been stronger than Biden’s, giving her additional avenues to victory if Trump manages to win some Rust Belt states.
Black voters, a critical part of the Democratic base, have largely returned to support Harris after showing less enthusiasm for Biden. Polls show Harris gaining overwhelming support from Black voters, similar to past elections, while Trump’s gains among this demographic have remained relatively modest.
Harris is also winning on the issue of democracy, a central theme of Biden’s previous campaign. While not as explicit in her messaging, Harris still holds an edge over Trump in polls concerning the protection of democracy, a crucial concern for many voters. This has helped solidify her standing in battleground states, where voters seem to prioritize this issue alongside the economy and healthcare.
Finally, Harris enters the Democratic convention in a relatively strong position. Historically, candidates receive a polling bump after their party’s convention, and Harris’ current standing suggests she could emerge as a solid frontrunner. Although not as strong as Biden’s lead in 2020, Harris’ lead going into the convention positions her favorably compared to past Democratic candidates, underscoring the importance of the convention bump in shaping the final stretch of the campaign.
