A study published in The Lancet Public Health predicts that heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with southern European countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain being disproportionately affected. Currently, cold weather kills more people than heat in Europe, and some have argued that climate change might reduce overall deaths by lessening cold-related fatalities.
However, the study warns that as temperatures rise, the increase in heat-related deaths will greatly exceed any reduction in deaths caused by cold, particularly if global temperatures rise by 3C or 4C above preindustrial levels.
The study’s findings suggest that climate change will pose significant challenges to public health, especially during heatwaves. Even if the global temperature rise is limited to 1.5C, Europe could still see a rise in combined cold and heat-related deaths from 407,000 today to 450,000 by 2100.
In the scenario of a 3C temperature increase, heat-related deaths could soar to 129,000 annually, compared to the current figure of 44,000. This highlights the severe risk posed by climate change, countering arguments that warming could be beneficial by reducing cold-related deaths.
Study Predicts Heat-Related Deaths in Europe Could Triple by 2100, With Southern Nations Most at Risk
The research comes amidst a series of extreme heatwaves that have severely impacted Europe, challenging the notion that global warming might benefit society. The study reveals that even in Europe, the continent with the mildest climate, the increased deaths from heat will outweigh the lives saved from reduced cold.
This issue is even more critical in other regions of the world, where rising temperatures are already causing more deadly conditions.
The study involved modeling data from 854 cities to estimate temperature-related deaths across Europe. It found that heat-related mortality will increase across the continent, with the southern regions bearing the brunt of the impact.
The researchers projected a 13.5% rise in deaths if global temperatures increase by 3C, adding 55,000 extra deaths annually, predominantly among the elderly population. While the study provides valuable insights, experts caution that predicting temperature-related deaths involves complexities and uncertainties, such as improvements in healthcare and infrastructure over time.
To mitigate the predicted rise in heat-related deaths, the researchers urge governments to implement policies like investing in healthcare, creating heat action plans, and improving building insulation. They emphasize that addressing the root cause of the problem, greenhouse gas emissions, is crucial to avoiding the worst-case scenarios.
Additionally, they stress that adaptation efforts should focus on regions most vulnerable to climate impacts, such as those with high unemployment, poverty, and aging populations, which are less equipped to cope with the increasing threat of extreme heat.
