Vladimir Putin’s potential options for retaliating if the West permits Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russia could include targeting British military assets near Russia or, in a more extreme scenario, conducting a nuclear test to signal intent, according to three analysts.
As tensions between East and West over Ukraine reach a new, more dangerous phase, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Joe Biden are meeting in Washington on Friday to discuss whether to allow Kyiv to use U.S.-provided ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles against targets inside Russia.
President Putin issued his clearest warning yet on Thursday, stating that if the West proceeds with such a move, it would be directly engaging in hostilities with Russia, fundamentally changing the nature of the conflict.
However, in June, he mentioned the possibility of supplying Russia’s weapons to its adversaries to strike Western targets abroad or deploying conventional missiles close enough to strike the United States and its European allies.
Ulrich Kuehn, an arms expert at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, said he did not rule out the possibility of Putin sending a nuclear message—such as conducting a nuclear test—to intimidate the West.
“This would be a dramatic escalation of the conflict,” Kuehn said in an interview. He added, “Because the point is, what kind of arrows has Mr. Putin then left to shoot if the West still continues, apart from actual nuclear use?”
Russia has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, the year before the Soviet Union collapsed, and a nuclear test would mark the beginning of a far more dangerous era.
Kuehn warned that Putin may feel pressure to act more aggressively, as his responses to increased NATO support for Ukraine might be seen as weak.
“Nuclear testing would be new. I would not exclude that, and it would be in line with Russia shattering a number of international security arrangements it has signed over the decades,” Kuehn said.
Gerhard Mangott, a security expert at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, also acknowledged the possibility of a nuclear signal from Russia, though he considered it unlikely.
“The Russians could conduct a nuclear test. They have made all the preparations needed.
They could explode a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in the east of the country just to demonstrate that (they) mean it when they say we will eventually resort to nuclear weapons,” Mangott said.
Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia warned the U.N. Security Council on Friday that NATO would be a direct participant in hostilities with a nuclear power if it allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.
“You shouldn’t forget about this and think about the consequences,” Nebenzia said.
As the world’s largest nuclear power, Russia is currently reviewing its nuclear doctrine, which outlines the circumstances under which it would use nuclear weapons.
Putin is being urged by an influential foreign policy hawk to make the doctrine more flexible, potentially opening the door to a limited nuclear strike on a NATO country.
In the case of Britain, Moscow would likely declare that London had shifted from a proxy hybrid war with Russia to direct armed aggression if it allows Ukraine to fire Storm Shadow missiles at Russian targets.
Russia-Ukraine War
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov predicted on the social media platform Telegram that Russia would respond by closing the British embassy in Moscow, shutting its own embassy in London, targeting British drones and warplanes near Russia (such as over the Black Sea), and possibly launching missiles at F-16s carrying Storm Shadow missiles at their bases in Romania or Poland.
Putin has tried and failed to establish red lines for the West in the past, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to dismiss their significance.
However, Putin’s latest warning about long-range missiles is being taken seriously both inside and outside Russia, with many believing he will be forced to act if London or Washington allows their missiles to strike Russia.
University of Innsbruck’s Mangott noted that Putin’s warning has been repeatedly broadcast on Russian state television, which has heightened expectations that he will deliver on it.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, reinforced this sentiment, saying during a press briefing on Friday that Putin’s message had been “extremely clear and unambiguous.”
Markov, the former Kremlin adviser, added, “Russia has decided to break” with the West’s strategy of gradually increasing support to Ukraine without provoking a sharp Russian reaction.
“The step that the West is now planning next, it’s a small step, but it crosses a red line that we will actually be forced to respond to. We will consider that you are at war with us.”
Sergei Mironov, the leader of a pro-Kremlin political party, stated in a press release on Friday: “The moment of truth has come for the West, whether it desires a full-scale war with Russia.”
Beyond nuclear posturing or strikes on British assets, more predictable responses could include Russia intensifying attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Kuehn suggested.
Mangott predicted that Kyiv would bear the brunt of Russia’s military response if the West approves the use of long-range missiles. He did not anticipate a direct military strike on NATO territory.
Russia may also escalate “hybrid” tactics, such as conducting sabotage operations in Europe or interfering in the U.S. election campaign, Kuehn added.
Mangott warned that the West risks misjudging Putin’s red lines. “Allowing Ukraine to use Western weaponry, assisted with Western satellite images (and) Western military advisers is something that very closely encroaches on vital Russian interests,” he said.
“So I think those (people) are wrong who say ‘Well, nothing will happen, let’s just do it.'”
