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Labour Poised for Historic Victory in UK General Election, Survation Poll Predicts

A recent poll conducted by Survation has predicted that the UK Labour Party is almost certain to secure a historic victory in the upcoming general election, surpassing their 1997 landslide.

The centre-left party, led by Keir Starmer, is projected to win 484 out of 650 seats, marking an unprecedented triumph in modern British history. This would see Labour reclaim power after being in opposition since 2010, replacing the current Conservative Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

In a tight race for the second position, the ruling Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are vying to become the official opposition. The MRP poll, known for using large national samples to predict results for each UK constituency, indicates a decisive win for Labour.

Over the past two years, Labour has maintained a double-digit lead over the Conservatives in various polls, a gap that has remained consistent throughout the six-week election campaign.

Labour Poised for Historic Victory in UK General Election, Survation Poll Predicts

Labour Poised for Historic Victory in UK General Election, Survation Poll Predicts

Survation’s data suggests that Labour will capture around 42% of the total vote, while the Conservatives are expected to garner only 23%. This would translate into Labour winning 484 seats, the Conservatives securing just 64 seats, and the Liberal Democrats claiming 61.

The projected Labour victory would surpass Tony Blair’s 418-seat win in 1997 and the Conservatives’ 470-seat landslide in 1931. In Scotland, Labour is also predicted to become the largest party, taking 38 of the 57 seats and displacing the Scottish National Party (SNP).

The poll further indicates that the Conservatives are likely to achieve their lowest vote share in any general election to date. Despite securing the third-largest share of the vote, the anti-immigration party Reform UK, founded by Nigel Farage, is expected to win only a handful of seats due to the UK’s electoral system.

Survation’s forecast, based on nearly 35,000 electorate interviews, has prompted warnings from Sunak about the potential risks of a Labour “super-majority”.

Amid these predictions, Labour leader Keir Starmer has accused the Conservative Party of running a negative and desperate campaign. With such a significant lead, the final hours of the campaign are crucial as both parties make their last efforts to sway voters ahead of the election.

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