Had Russia not invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have been preparing for a re-election campaign in the spring of 2024. However, after Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to cross the border, Ukraine swiftly entered a state of martial law, which led to the postponement of both presidential and parliamentary elections.
Donald Trump has since intensified his criticism of Zelenskyy, labeling the Ukrainian president “a dictator” due to the election delays.
Why Hasn’t Ukraine Held Elections Since the War Began?
Under Ukraine’s constitution, holding national elections during martial law is not permitted.
Frequent air raids have made election organization and vote counting unfeasible while also posing serious security risks, as large gatherings at polling stations could become targets. In the eastern regions most affected by the war—or under occupation—many voters would be disenfranchised compared to those in the western parts of the country.
Additionally, mass internal displacement and the departure of many citizens abroad have left Ukraine without an updated national voter registry or a system for absentee voting. Addressing these issues would divert crucial resources from the country’s defense efforts.
Even if a ceasefire were reached, “there is a broad political consensus that there should not be elections earlier than six months after the lifting of martial law,” Orysia Lutsevych explained. “And I suspect that martial law will not be lifted quickly if a ceasefire is signed, because of fears that the Russians could break it at any time.”
Is Zelenskyy Unpopular?
Trump’s claim that Zelenskyy’s approval rating is 4% appears baseless. The only apparent source for that figure comes from Russian media outlets, which cited a “poll” conducted by Zelenskyy critic Oleksandr Dubinsky among his Telegram followers—an audience that is far from representative.
Regardless of where Trump got the number, it does not align with any credible data. Zelenskyy himself addressed the claim, stating yesterday that the 4% figure was “disinformation, we understand it’s coming from Russia.”
While it is true that his approval rating has declined from the peak of his popularity during the early months of the war—when some polls placed it as high as 90% (compared to a prewar low of 25%)—this is far from unusual.
Historically, leaders in crisis situations often see a surge in support, which then stabilizes over time. A similar trend was observed with George W. Bush after 9/11, yet he still went on to win re-election.
The latest available polling data places Zelenskyy’s approval at 57%—still remarkably high when compared to other European leaders and certainly above Trump’s.
“Very few leaders have as much support as Zelenskyy,” Lutsevych noted. “There is no sign of that support collapsing. It seemed pretty clear at his press conference yesterday that he was confident about this, and confident that he has the support of the public and the parliament.”
That said, Zelenskyy is not guaranteed victory whenever an election is eventually held. However, if he were purely concerned with political survival, it would have made more sense for him to push forward with the scheduled election at the height of his popularity.
“Even now, he will believe that he can run on the basis of being Ukraine’s defender and have an excellent chance,” Lutsevych added.
Ukraine Elections
Why Do Russia and the U.S. Want Elections Urgently?
Moscow’s primary interest in Ukrainian elections appears to be fostering instability and weakening national unity in support of the war effort. “They will only agree to a ceasefire if they are able to continue war by other means,” Lutsevych said.
“They want a divided society, and they are skilled at this kind of interference. They would prefer not to have Zelenskyy there because he is trusted in Europe, and anyone who replaces him would be starting from scratch.”
Before Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, there was a sizable pro-Russian faction in Ukrainian politics. However, that political base has largely disappeared.
Several pro-Russian parties have been banned, and those who might still align with Moscow likely reside in Russian-controlled areas, meaning they would be unable to vote in any future election. As a result, the prospect of a pro-Kremlin government taking power in Ukraine is highly unlikely.
At the same time, Lutsevych pointed out that alternative candidates could emerge who might be more favorable to Russian interests. “You can imagine a ‘pro-peace, pro-normalisation’ candidate,” she said.
“They would likely be someone very well separated from the old pro-Russian parties, and they could hijack the discourse. It’s not obvious who that is at the moment, but it’s possible.” Whenever Ukraine returns to a non-emergency state, such candidates will have the opportunity to compete in a democratic election.
Trump, meanwhile, has insisted that his position is “not a Russian thing” and that other countries agree with him. However, aside from Russia, no other country appears to be making this argument—let alone calling Zelenskyy a dictator.
“Trump appears to trust Putin,” Lutsevych observed. “He is not really interested in internal Ukrainian politics: he wants to establish geopolitical cooperation with Moscow so that he can move on to other strategic objectives, and he’s ready to remove any obstacle to do that.”
What Do Ukrainians Think?
The question of whether Ukrainians want an election is separate from Zelenskyy’s personal approval rating. On this issue, too, there is little evidence of widespread public dissatisfaction. Throughout the war, polling has consistently shown that a strong majority supports waiting until martial law is lifted before holding elections.
Trump’s remarks are unlikely to change this stance. “If anything, it will probably create the opposite result,” Lutsevych said. “And people are comfortable that they are still living in a democracy.”
“The proof of that is that even under war conditions there are political debates, and people who criticise Zelenskyy publicly. There is independent media, local self-governance, and the right to freedom of assembly.
People rally on issues from funding for the armed forces to calling for more information about prisoners of war.” All of this stands in stark contrast to the political repression seen in Russia.
What Would a New Election Look Like?
When Ukraine eventually holds elections, Zelenskyy may face serious competition, including from figures like Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the four-star general and current ambassador to the UK.
Zaluzhnyi enjoys high approval ratings and was dismissed following a publicized rift with Zelenskyy, during which he criticized the Ukrainian government’s failure to effectively bolster military recruitment.
Restoring a functioning democratic system in a post-war Ukraine will present significant challenges. “There are big questions about how the pro-democratic opposition to Zelenskyy organises itself – they don’t have the infrastructure of party activists and resources,” Lutsevych noted.
“Whatever happens, it is likely that veterans of the war will be prominent in politics and shape the agenda. There are lots of problems with how you rebuild Ukraine and guarantee its future security.”
While these are pressing concerns, none suggest that Zelenskyy is acting as a dictator.
