The US is bracing for the possibility of a conflict with China over Taiwan, with a top Republican in Congress warning that the odds of a conflict are “very high.” The warning comes after a US general sparked concern with a memo that predicted a war with China within the next two years.
General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote a memo dated February 1st but released on Friday, stating that “my gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” Minihan’s views do not represent the Pentagon, but reflect the concern at the highest levels of the US military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which China claims as a wayward province.
Minihan’s memo cites the upcoming presidential elections in the United States and Taiwan, which could create an opportunity for China to take military action. He warns that if China fails to achieve its goals bloodlessly, it will likely resort to a military invasion. US Representative Mike McCaul, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, agrees with Minihan’s assessment, stating that if China fails to take control of Taiwan without bloodshed, it will likely attempt a military invasion.
McCaul also criticized the Democratic administration of US President Joe Biden, accusing it of projecting weakness after the bungled pullout from Afghanistan, which he believes has made war with China more likely. The White House declined to comment on McCaul’s remarks.
General Mike Minihan (Via General Mike Minihan/Twitter)
Not everyone agrees with Minihan’s dire assessment, however. US Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, disagrees, stating that war with China is “not only not inevitable, it is highly unlikely.” Smith believes that the US needs to be in a position to deter China from military action against Taiwan, but he is confident that the country can avoid conflict by taking the right approach.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has also downplayed the possibility of an imminent invasion of Taiwan by Beijing, stating that he seriously doubts that China’s recent ramped-up military activities near the Taiwan Strait are a sign of an imminent invasion. A Pentagon official has also said that Minihan’s comments do not represent the department’s view on China.
The conflict over Taiwan has been brewing for some time, with tensions escalating in recent years. China has been increasing its military presence in the region, and the US has been strengthening its military ties with Taiwan. The US has a commitment to defend Taiwan, which is enshrined in the Taiwan Relations Act, but it has not explicitly stated that it would come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack.
The stakes are high, with a potential conflict between the US and China over Taiwan threatening global stability. The US and China are the world’s two largest economies, and a conflict between them could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy and international relations.
