Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnavirakul has declared victory in the country’s general election, after early results showed his conservative bloc comfortably ahead of its competitors.
Speaking after the initial count, Anutin said the outcome belonged to “all Thais, no matter whether you voted for us or not”, as his party’s strong performance contradicted opinion polls that had suggested the reformist People’s Party was on course to win.
With around 90% of ballots counted, Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party is forecast to secure 194 seats in Thailand’s 500-seat parliament, while the People’s Party is projected to finish second with 116 seats.
The People’s Party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, appeared to acknowledge defeat, saying he was prepared to take on the role of opposition leader if Anutin succeeds in forming a government.
The snap election was called in December, following the collapse of Anutin’s coalition government just three months into its term.
Although no single party is expected to reach an outright majority, the results make it highly likely that Anutin will remain prime minister. His Bhumjaithai party is set to more than double the number of seats it secured in the 2023 election.
As is often the case in Thailand, the election delivered an unexpected outcome.
For the People’s Party, the result represents a major setback. The reformists had hoped to build on their strong showing three years ago, but the anticipated surge of support, dubbed the “orange wave”, for their young and idealistic candidates failed to appear.
The party, which previously contested elections under the name Move Forward and won in 2023, was prevented from taking power by the unelected senate. This time, it has been pushed into second place by Anutin’s more pragmatic conservative alliance.
For now, the reformists will remain in opposition. The political crisis many feared, had the party won again, only to be blocked from office once more, has been avoided.
Anutin celebrated the projected victory with supporters and party officials at Bhumjaithai’s headquarters in Bangkok.
Opinion polling in Thailand has frequently proven unreliable, and attention is now likely to turn to how Anutin transformed Bhumjaithai, once a small, regionally focused party whose name translates as “Thai Pride”, into such a dominant force.
After two brief border clashes with Cambodia last year, the party leaned heavily on patriotic messaging, positioning itself as the leading voice of conservatism and pledging to safeguard traditional Thai institutions such as the monarchy and the military.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnavirakul
Anutin ran a campaign rooted in hard-line nationalism and populist handouts, but analysts say his success also reflected his skill in securing the backing of influential local figures. This proved decisive in an electoral system where 80% of parliamentary seats are decided in single-member constituencies under a first-past-the-post system, with the remaining 20% allocated based on national vote share.
He also expanded the party’s appeal by placing respected technocrats, known for their administrative competence, at the centre of his campaign.
While the People’s Party performed more strongly in the proportional vote, it appears to have lost some of the support it enjoyed in 2023 and struggled to compensate for its weaker local organisational networks.
The third major player in the race was the Pheu Thai party, led by the influential Shinawatra family. Translated as “For Thais”, Pheu Thai is projected to win 86 seats, a steep decline compared with its 2023 result.
Once the dominant force in Thai politics, Pheu Thai had built its success on carefully packaged populist policies. It formed a coalition government after Move Forward was sidelined in 2023, but two of its prime ministers were later removed by Thailand’s powerful constitutional court.
The party’s reputation suffered further due to accusations that it mishandled tensions with Cambodia, as well as the imprisonment of its patriarch, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was jailed last September.
Economic concerns featured heavily in voters’ thinking, with household debt at record highs and economic growth significantly weaker than in past years.
“I want the economy to improve and I don’t want big factories to relocate to our neighbouring countries,” civil servant Phananya Bunthong told the BBC, pointing to Thailand’s growing competition from Vietnam.
The People’s Party campaigned on sweeping reforms, including reducing the influence of major corporations and the military, cutting bureaucratic red tape, and overhauling the education system. Since the movement’s launch eight years ago, its ambitious agenda has resonated strongly with younger voters.
“I want change. I don’t want things to be the same,” said 28-year-old Kittitat Daengkongkho.
However, the election outcome suggests that these proposals were less persuasive among older voters and those living outside urban centres, who appeared more receptive to Bhumjaithai’s straightforward promises of financial support.
Alongside the general election, voters also took part in a referendum on whether to amend the 2017 constitution, which was written under military rule.
Opponents of the current charter argue that it grants excessive authority to unelected bodies such as the courts and the senate, effectively “handcuffing” Thailand’s democratic system.
With more than 90% of referendum votes counted, early results indicated that roughly 65% of voters supported constitutional reform.
