In the recent Brandenburg state election, the Social Democrats (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared to narrowly defeat the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Throughout the campaign, the AfD had been leading, but the SPD made a last-minute comeback, securing 30.9% of the vote compared to the AfD’s 29.2%, according to provisional results.
The SPD has governed Brandenburg since German reunification in 1990, and their success, while significant, was not expected to provide a major boost to Scholz’s political standing, as he remains unpopular nationwide.
Despite the SPD’s victory, Scholz’s federal unpopularity and the internal party discussions about his leadership persist. SPD premier Dietmar Woidke, who led the state campaign, distanced himself from Scholz, criticizing the federal government’s policies, including Scholz’s own.
Woidke’s popularity played a key role in the SPD’s resurgence, but many voters supported the SPD not out of loyalty but as a way to prevent the AfD from gaining more ground, as shown by exit polls.
Social Democrats Edge Out Far-Right AfD in Brandenburg Election Amid Rising National Political Tensions
Nationally, the SPD’s struggles continue, with the party polling at only 15%, far behind the opposition conservatives and the AfD. The SPD’s victory in Brandenburg did not address these broader issues, and tensions within Scholz’s governing coalition remain.
The coalition, which includes the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), has been criticized for internal conflicts and its stance on key issues like immigration and support for Ukraine.
The AfD, meanwhile, has been gaining momentum, especially in the former East Germany. The Brandenburg election came shortly after the AfD achieved a historic victory in Thuringia, becoming the first far-right party to win a state election since World War II. The AfD’s gains, particularly among younger voters, mirror trends seen across Europe, where far-right parties have been growing in influence.
The new leftist Alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht also performed well in the election, securing 12%, ahead of the conservative CDU’s 11.6%.
Meanwhile, the Greens, a junior partner in Scholz’s coalition, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter Brandenburg’s state parliament, making future coalition formations uncertain. The SPD will need to explore new political alliances, as their existing coalition lacks a clear majority.
